2016 Presidential Election - August 2015 Update

So, a month has passed since I last wrote about the election. What's changed? Surprisingly little. So, let's start with the Democrats.

Little has changed on this front. Joe Biden has yet to declare if he's in or he's out. This means we still may not be into the real bulk of the Democrat's race. Before this unleashes a fire storm from fans of the independent senator from Vermont, let me say explain why I say this. Then you can tell me I'm crazy and polls are wrong. Clinton is still pretty secure in her lead. Really secure actually. She's almost Al Gore secure. She's been hovering around a 55% average support in recent polls. She's hovering just at our just under the amount of support Gore had at the same time in 1999. Bad news for Sanders. Even worse news for Sanders? He's not even polling as well as Bill Bradley did against Gore. In the latest NBC/WSJ poll, Clinton is riding high at 59% versus Sanders 25%. I'm using this poll because it leaves out Uncle Joe. Even if Sanders picked up every voter who isn't backing Clinton, he'd still be behind.

So, with that said, Biden jumping in might change this dynamic. He could change it a lot. According to a recent Gallup poll, Biden could make an impact in the race. He's got roughly 19% of those polled certainly supporting him, and another 60% who would consider supporting him. And he's well liked. He's liked by people inside and outside the party. Now, Biden would still have a brutal fight ahead to unseat Clinton. But a 3 way fight would make Clinton more vulnerable, and Biden might be able to break a barrier in support that Sanders hasn't. Until we know what Joe is doing, things are up in the air. If he stays out, Hillary will be in a relatively secure spot, leaving Bernie to fight for what support he can get.

If Sanders doesn't take the fight right to Clinton, he might be at his peak already. She's coming out with real policy in places where Sanders has been vocal, like her college plan. Sanders will have to show that he's got actual plans too, and he may have to prove his plans could get enough support to get through Congress. That's going to be the hard selling point for him. It could even be said that he's a DINO - a Democrat In Name Only. Considering his independent status in the Senate, this would not be an inaccurate call. He doesn't have the deep roots that Clinton or Biden have in the party, and in a year with so many Senate seats up for grabs, rallying the party is more important than ever. Democrats are defending 10 Senate seats, compared to 24 Republican seats up for election. A strong Democrat running for president could help boost voter turnout for those races, and sway independent voters to vote with the party of their presidential candidate. Time will tell.

So, where are Republicans in this post first debate world? Things are, well, chaotic. It seems that most of the candidates came out around where they went in. With two exceptions. Trump and Fiorina. In the latest from Rasmussen Trump had lost some momentum, losing 9% support to land at 17%. This might mean Trump has peaked, and will slip from here. On the opposite side, Fiorina jumped from almost nothing up to 9%, ranking her with the likes of Walker. In general, Trump is the only candidate to break the 20% mark, and even he dropped back to the teens post debate. Well, post debate and self inflicted wounds. Honestly, it was just a matter of time before Trump said something that would start to sink his ship. He may rally again, but he may have seen his high point in the polls.

With such a cluttered field, it is hard to predict who will take the lead next. It will be up to Fiorina to continue her upward trajectory. More likely is that she'll have a moment in the Sun, then burn out like Cain or Bachmann last go round. Her likelihood to get the nomination is low. She and Carson face the same difficulty. Zero experience in politics is a huge hindrance. Getting elected with zero political and zero military experience would be unheard of at this level. Could it happen? Yes, but it's unlikely. In 2008 Obama was blasted for not having enough experience, I can only imagine what Fiorina and Carson would face since they would lack any experience.

Until someone can break out from the pack, the GOP race will be about staying on voter's minds. For the Democrats, it is seeing if Biden wants to run. Waiting seems to be the only thing now. So, until next month, or the next big break, this is me signing off.

2016 Presidential Primary Season

I've been tracking the presidential races again this year. I've been doing this since I was a kid, a hobby really. So, where are our two major parties at? Let's look.

So far, I don't see a solid front runner in the GOP race. The numbers bounce around so much, and with over a dozen contenders, it's looking pretty crazy. We have over a dozen contenders, and most are pulling single digits. Bush seems to have a marginal lead, but is struggling to crack 20%. Anyone's game. But Trump. That's my gut. He'd crumple in a debate.

As for the Democrat side of things, let me start by saying this is my analysis of the situation, and nothing more. Clinton is the clear front runner. She has an easy 40 point spread before Sanders shows up. Does this make her inevitable? No. Does this mean Sanders has an uphill battle? Yes. Comparing him to Obama of 2007, Sanders has less support, smaller crowds, and less money. Can he still pull off a win? Yes, but it will be hard. Especially if Biden runs.
This is a little more prediction, but it is based on some observations. When Biden isn't included in polls, his numbers seem to boost Clinton. When he is included, he's almost even with Sanders. If Biden does run, that could pull support from Clinton and Sanders. Best case for Sanders is that it might narrow the gap from front runner to challengers, and give him more viability. Worst case, Biden will edge him into the realm of super long shot.

Something worth throwing out there, as a closing note to my political return to writing, the parties may be looking for a candidate that helps represent the party as a whole, in order to help Senate elections that could have a major impact on policy. That may leave candidates that sit on the fringe of the parties being left out in the cold.

That's all for now, thanks for stopping by, if you want to comment, please try to keep it to analysis and questions. I know people have a lot of feels about their favorite, but I'm just looking at the process. Good night interwebs!