I've been tracking the presidential races again this year. I've been doing this since I was a kid, a hobby really. So, where are our two major parties at? Let's look.
So far, I don't see a solid front runner in the GOP race. The numbers bounce around so much, and with over a dozen contenders, it's looking pretty crazy. We have over a dozen contenders, and most are pulling single digits. Bush seems to have a marginal lead, but is struggling to crack 20%. Anyone's game. But Trump. That's my gut. He'd crumple in a debate.
As for the Democrat side of things, let me start by saying this is my analysis of the situation, and nothing more. Clinton is the clear front runner. She has an easy 40 point spread before Sanders shows up. Does this make her inevitable? No. Does this mean Sanders has an uphill battle? Yes. Comparing him to Obama of 2007, Sanders has less support, smaller crowds, and less money. Can he still pull off a win? Yes, but it will be hard. Especially if Biden runs.
This is a little more prediction, but it is based on some observations. When Biden isn't included in polls, his numbers seem to boost Clinton. When he is included, he's almost even with Sanders. If Biden does run, that could pull support from Clinton and Sanders. Best case for Sanders is that it might narrow the gap from front runner to challengers, and give him more viability. Worst case, Biden will edge him into the realm of super long shot.
Something worth throwing out there, as a closing note to my political return to writing, the parties may be looking for a candidate that helps represent the party as a whole, in order to help Senate elections that could have a major impact on policy. That may leave candidates that sit on the fringe of the parties being left out in the cold.
That's all for now, thanks for stopping by, if you want to comment, please try to keep it to analysis and questions. I know people have a lot of feels about their favorite, but I'm just looking at the process. Good night interwebs!
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