Cam's Random Brain
Random thoughts that I have had in the day, and possibly something useful.
Thursday, July 7, 2016
Black Lives
Tuesday, August 11, 2015
2016 Presidential Election - August 2015 Update
So, a month has passed since I last wrote about the election. What's changed? Surprisingly little. So, let's start with the Democrats.
Little has changed on this front. Joe Biden has yet to declare if he's in or he's out. This means we still may not be into the real bulk of the Democrat's race. Before this unleashes a fire storm from fans of the independent senator from Vermont, let me say explain why I say this. Then you can tell me I'm crazy and polls are wrong. Clinton is still pretty secure in her lead. Really secure actually. She's almost Al Gore secure. She's been hovering around a 55% average support in recent polls. She's hovering just at our just under the amount of support Gore had at the same time in 1999. Bad news for Sanders. Even worse news for Sanders? He's not even polling as well as Bill Bradley did against Gore. In the latest NBC/WSJ poll, Clinton is riding high at 59% versus Sanders 25%. I'm using this poll because it leaves out Uncle Joe. Even if Sanders picked up every voter who isn't backing Clinton, he'd still be behind.
So, with that said, Biden jumping in might change this dynamic. He could change it a lot. According to a recent Gallup poll, Biden could make an impact in the race. He's got roughly 19% of those polled certainly supporting him, and another 60% who would consider supporting him. And he's well liked. He's liked by people inside and outside the party. Now, Biden would still have a brutal fight ahead to unseat Clinton. But a 3 way fight would make Clinton more vulnerable, and Biden might be able to break a barrier in support that Sanders hasn't. Until we know what Joe is doing, things are up in the air. If he stays out, Hillary will be in a relatively secure spot, leaving Bernie to fight for what support he can get.
If Sanders doesn't take the fight right to Clinton, he might be at his peak already. She's coming out with real policy in places where Sanders has been vocal, like her college plan. Sanders will have to show that he's got actual plans too, and he may have to prove his plans could get enough support to get through Congress. That's going to be the hard selling point for him. It could even be said that he's a DINO - a Democrat In Name Only. Considering his independent status in the Senate, this would not be an inaccurate call. He doesn't have the deep roots that Clinton or Biden have in the party, and in a year with so many Senate seats up for grabs, rallying the party is more important than ever. Democrats are defending 10 Senate seats, compared to 24 Republican seats up for election. A strong Democrat running for president could help boost voter turnout for those races, and sway independent voters to vote with the party of their presidential candidate. Time will tell.
So, where are Republicans in this post first debate world? Things are, well, chaotic. It seems that most of the candidates came out around where they went in. With two exceptions. Trump and Fiorina. In the latest from Rasmussen Trump had lost some momentum, losing 9% support to land at 17%. This might mean Trump has peaked, and will slip from here. On the opposite side, Fiorina jumped from almost nothing up to 9%, ranking her with the likes of Walker. In general, Trump is the only candidate to break the 20% mark, and even he dropped back to the teens post debate. Well, post debate and self inflicted wounds. Honestly, it was just a matter of time before Trump said something that would start to sink his ship. He may rally again, but he may have seen his high point in the polls.
With such a cluttered field, it is hard to predict who will take the lead next. It will be up to Fiorina to continue her upward trajectory. More likely is that she'll have a moment in the Sun, then burn out like Cain or Bachmann last go round. Her likelihood to get the nomination is low. She and Carson face the same difficulty. Zero experience in politics is a huge hindrance. Getting elected with zero political and zero military experience would be unheard of at this level. Could it happen? Yes, but it's unlikely. In 2008 Obama was blasted for not having enough experience, I can only imagine what Fiorina and Carson would face since they would lack any experience.
Until someone can break out from the pack, the GOP race will be about staying on voter's minds. For the Democrats, it is seeing if Biden wants to run. Waiting seems to be the only thing now. So, until next month, or the next big break, this is me signing off.
Wednesday, July 8, 2015
2016 Presidential Primary Season
I've been tracking the presidential races again this year. I've been doing this since I was a kid, a hobby really. So, where are our two major parties at? Let's look.
So far, I don't see a solid front runner in the GOP race. The numbers bounce around so much, and with over a dozen contenders, it's looking pretty crazy. We have over a dozen contenders, and most are pulling single digits. Bush seems to have a marginal lead, but is struggling to crack 20%. Anyone's game. But Trump. That's my gut. He'd crumple in a debate.
As for the Democrat side of things, let me start by saying this is my analysis of the situation, and nothing more. Clinton is the clear front runner. She has an easy 40 point spread before Sanders shows up. Does this make her inevitable? No. Does this mean Sanders has an uphill battle? Yes. Comparing him to Obama of 2007, Sanders has less support, smaller crowds, and less money. Can he still pull off a win? Yes, but it will be hard. Especially if Biden runs.
This is a little more prediction, but it is based on some observations. When Biden isn't included in polls, his numbers seem to boost Clinton. When he is included, he's almost even with Sanders. If Biden does run, that could pull support from Clinton and Sanders. Best case for Sanders is that it might narrow the gap from front runner to challengers, and give him more viability. Worst case, Biden will edge him into the realm of super long shot.
Something worth throwing out there, as a closing note to my political return to writing, the parties may be looking for a candidate that helps represent the party as a whole, in order to help Senate elections that could have a major impact on policy. That may leave candidates that sit on the fringe of the parties being left out in the cold.
That's all for now, thanks for stopping by, if you want to comment, please try to keep it to analysis and questions. I know people have a lot of feels about their favorite, but I'm just looking at the process. Good night interwebs!
Sunday, March 23, 2014
Pickles, Icecream, and Self Indulgence
That's right. A gallon of ice cream and a 2.5qt jar of pickles. They are not eaten together...yet. The smell issue has somewhat subsided. I can use the oven regularly again at least. She is also showing now. I'm eagerly awaiting the day that the baby can be felt kicking. I mean, she can feel it, but I can't. Strangely, I'm really looking forward to the dog feeling the baby kick him in the head for the first time. I don't want Buddy to get hurt, I just think it is going to be hilarious to watch his reaction.
He as at least been a very loyal dog. He will follow Corey right to bed the moment she says the words "let's go to bed". He is up and at the foot of the bed pretty quick. His loyalty belongs to me on the sofa. There, he'll do whatever he can to try and curl up by me. However, Corey is master of the sleeps. He doesn't care if I'm going to bed, once she sets in in motion, I only matter if I come to bed so he can use my legs like a hammock.
So, in other matters, I finally finished putting in new outlets downstairs so that Calfo can use the play area with light and TV if he wants it. Eventually I'll be running cable to a wireless router so that there is a better internet signal. I might even move my desk down there so that there's more room in the living room for stuff. Yeah. Like room for a baby to roll around or something.
So, I've been having some very strange story ideas. I know, I'm a little more random than usual. My brain has been moving a mile a minute trying to absorb everything and process it, so when suddenly it has downtime, it fills it with crazy thoughts. Like time travel. But in my story it requires an implant and you can only go back as far as the implant is inserted. I'm thinking there will be an option to erase future memory after you go back. Your mind is all that gets transferred. Colin and I had talked about something like this before, and I've been expanding upon it. I think it started with thinking about if this was all a dream...
Corey is over on the couch pretending she knows the words to the songs from Pandora. She has come up with some pretty good stuff. Well, I think I'm going to go join her and eat some rolled tacos or something. Oh, and by the way - the bacon in the picture? That's my idea. I found that I can piggy back on Corey's cravings by suggesting other foods that might be good, but that really I just want. I guess I'm self indulging using her pregnancy cravings as a cover. I figure as long as I don't go overboard. She's growing a person, so she gets a free pass. Me? I'm along for the ride, and right now, that means yummy treats. So on that note, I'll leave you with Ambrosia. Why? I don't know, just enjoy it.
Wednesday, March 5, 2014
Cake Craft - How I Make Cakes
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Look nice? Yeah, they are evil. EVIL. |
Next up, I did up two half batches of rice crispy treats. The first I did normal like, melting the marshmallows in a double boiler, because I like double boilers. It also let me dump the marshmallow for the first batch into a pan and then mix the second batch right away. To make the second batch gray, I used black food coloring. Not too much, just enough to change the color. Then mixed in the cereal and boom. Gravel or stone. Either one. The regular batch will serve as sand for our world. Now we have the components, and are almost ready to build the world!
My wife was helping me with all this, as she is always ready to help and keeps me sane while I work on these projects. It also keeps me from getting too carried away and spending 6 hours on making a cake. She'll tell you, I'd do it. Well, she helped by splitting our icing into two batches, one green for grass, the other just white to act like glue. It'll be going between blocks to hold it together. If you're making a larger cake, you can use chocolate icing, or any icing between blocks. I just happened to only need this much for the amount of work I was doing. Now, once your gelatin has settled, cake cooled, treats molded, you're ready to build! But everything into squares, and if you're like me, you'll draw out your pattern first.
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W for water, S for sand, D for dirt, R for rock. The slashes are for layers. Yes, I plan that much on these. |
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The Calfo being excited. |
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
I'm not freaking out...I'm panicking with style.
In case you're wondering, I include music in most of my posts because I like music. It is a great way to convey a feeling. Also, music is awesome.
So, I'm feeling helpless, and here is why. If Corey gets sick, I get her meds, I cook, I set up the humidifier. I do stuff, and then she's all better. I have my sense of accomplishment and my wife back up in good health. Now she's pregnant, and I have to wait until July before she's "better". I can't get her NyQuil and hope she doesn't try to take too much. I can't get her back to 100%. It feels like hospice care - I can only make her more comfortable until her time comes. This is a very hard thing to deal with. I'm slowly getting used to it, but I fear that by the time I'm used to it, she'll be in the middle of labor. Then I'll have a whole new set of worries. Calvin is still pretty upbeat. He's an upbeat kid. I admire that. Heck, I envy that sometimes.
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This is how I feel on the inside most days. |
I've found that I have to deal with things one day at a time, and that I can't really outwardly panic. I'm trying to remain strong for Corey. She deserves it. I know she's got a lot more to worry about. She can feel baby moving around now. I'm excited for when I can feel it moving around...and at the same time, that will bring a whole new level of "real" to the game. I think I'm freaking out now...no. I'm panicking with style. I'm just going to have to add a lot more style as I go.
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
Pregnancy: Trimester II - Attack of the Cravings.
Otherwise, everything is pretty cool. Calvin is excited, and apparently doesn't care if he has a little brother or sister, as long as they copy him. Sometimes I copy him, so I'm sure his siblings will emulate him. However, I need to keep him from teaching them about how Dad is a horrible gambler. I can't afford to keep losing money. That's right, The Calfo has learned that I am not that good at gambling. He recently learned how to play Gin Rummy. I told him I used to play for money, and that got him very interested in playing. Last time I looked at the scorecard, I'm glad I haven't played him for money. He's too smart for my own good. I'm sure he'll be a good older brother.
You know, it's funny, but becoming a father again has me pretty anxious. I'm coming to grips with two big things right now. One is that there actually is a human being incubating inside of my lovely wife's insides. The other is that I will be responsible for another human being. The first is one I just have to accept. The second is a little tricky. It's this thought that another child means another chance to completely mess up. I just got distracted by the dog pushing a bone across the room. He was just pushing it from one side to the other, like another location would provide better access to the chewy insides hiding inside the bone. The dog has also been good about helping me adjust to what is to come. Last night he started hyperventilating because he needed to go outside...in the middle of the night. Of course I took him out, and he was happy for that. Well, back to messing up...I think I'm just worried because I want to do a good job. I think if I wasn't worried, I should be worried. Does that even make sense?
Oh, and in case you were wondering, I've already volunteered to get up as often as I can in the middle of the night once baby is here. I know there are times where Corey will have to get up (that whole feeding thing is something I also cannot do with my own body), but when I can do it I will. I'm going into all this with the mindset that we are partners. The only things that I'm leaving as "things that the mother does" have to do with things that I'm physically incapable of. I know this is going to be wonderful and difficult and lovely and painful and crazy and that raising children is always going to be an adventure. I just want to make sure that I'm doing my part. I already feel behind, because she will forever be able to hold "I grew that!" over my head. But that's OK.
Well, I think I'm going to sign off. I will leave you with some Muse for absolutely no reason. See you next time!